Weathering the future
From a surprise shower to an unexpectedly cold evening, we all know the weather forecast doesn’t always pan out – and for small-scale farmers who depend on it for their crops, it’s more than just an inconvenience. But what if we could be sure of weather before it strikes? What if we could even influence it?
In this episode, we dive into the science and innovation shaping our interaction with the weather. From predicting storms to cloud seeding, hear from the experts working to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of the changing climate. Featuring Clare Nasir, Steven Siems and Dan Martin.
Transcript
This is Farms. Food. Future. – a podcast that’s Good for you, Good for the Planet, and Good for Farmers. Brought to you by the International Fund for Agricultural Development.
Brian:
Welcome to episode 80 – I'm Brian Thomson.
Michelle:
And co-presenting this edition, I'm Michelle Tang.
Brian:
Today we're talking about something we check every day – the weather!
Michelle:
Sunshine, storms, heatwaves, cold snaps. It’s just part of life...
Brian:
But what if we told you that understanding the weather isn’t just about checking your phone before you head out the door? What if we could predict extreme weather before it hits? What if, in some cases… we could even change it?
Michelle:
That’s exactly what we’re exploring today, Brian. Meteorologist Clare Nasir will take us inside the science of our changing climate: why storms are getting stronger, heatwaves more intense, and what that means for farmers on the frontlines. Because while we cannot stop a storm, we can predict it.
Brian:
And in some cases, we can even make it rain.
Dr. Steven Siems, Professor at Monash University and Co-chair of the World Meteorological Organization, or WMO, Expert Team on Weather Modification, will tell us all about cloud seeding and the debates surrounding its use in tackling water scarcity.
Michelle:
And speaking of water, we'll also speak to Dan Martin, IFAD’s Senior Technical Specialist for Water & Rural Infrastructure about how we can ensure farmers actually have the water they need.
What can we do to preserve this vital resource? And can we really change the weather?
Brian:
Stick around to find out and don’t forget we want to hear from you – what you think about our stories and who you want us to be talking to – so please get in touch with us at podcasts@ifad.org. You can also subscribe to this podcast via your favourite podcast platform and please don’t forget to rate us.
Michelle:
Stay with us, because coming up, meteorologist Clare Nasir unpacks the science of weather – on Earth and beyond!
Brian:
You’re listening to Farms. Food. Future. with me Brian Thomson and Michelle Tang.
Clare Nasir is an expert meteorologist with the UK Met Office and co-author of the book What Does Rain Smell Like?
Michelle:
In it, she uncovers the complexities of weather patterns and how they impact communities and agriculture around the world.
Brian:
Our reporter Rosa González, spoke to Clare about the urgent global challenges posed by weather and climate – and how science is helping us not just on Earth, but beyond exploring the mysteries of weather on other planets.
Rosa González:
Welcome Clare and thanks joining us on the podcast… To start, how does meteorology help us understand and address major global water challenges, like droughts and flooding?
Clare Nasir:
Okay, so these are two massive issues which impact millions of people around the world, particularly rural communities and people working in agriculture. Too little rain leads to so many problems, as well as too much rain. So, there is a delicate balance between one and another. Obviously, too much rain leads to long periods of, you know, rotting crops... It degrades soil. Flash flooding, which is a slightly different one from long term flooding, leads to a heightened risk of contamination from sewage systems or salt intrusion.
So, I work for the UK Met Office and it's one of many institutions around the world focusing on weather and climate. The Met Office itself actually produces or collates every day, about 215 billion weather observations. And that's from satellites, weather stations as well as ships, buoys. So, a lot of information going into these computer models. And that helps not only with the forecast for the next few days, but it goes into climate models as well to analyse where our climate is going and the trends... and the trends are obviously going in the wrong direction, because we see this every day in headline news where people's livelihoods and lives are affected by extreme weather. So, it's really important, and the purpose of expertise in climate and weather to improve the representation of these hydrological processes so we can understand more so historical land use, but also water resource and what's available. And that allows us to sort of create better projections on the impacts of future climate change on these water resources. And more importantly really, is to be partnering with institutions around the world. That's not just governments, that's industry, that's UN bodies. Just to make sure that we understand water management in every realm, whether it's lack of or too much to protect people, protect communities from what we're seeing every day.
Rosa:Mhm, definitely. And we'd like to talk about your book, "What does rain smell like?” because it takes a fascinating look at the complexities of weather. So, what inspired you and Simon King to write it and what do you hope readers take away from it?
Clare: clones. Cyclone Idai in March: it in the California fires in:
Rosa:
Thanks, that's really interesting. And one of the most captivating topics in your book is weather on other planets… What’s the most surprising fact you've come across about planetary weather, and how does it compare to Earth’s?
Clare:
Well, there's this new research going on and I think it's theoretical but very interesting. On the planets of Neptune and Uranus there's a phenomenon called diamond rain. If you imagine that, it sounds very beautiful and very sparkly. Now these are gas giants and they experience such extremes in terms of pressure and temperature, there's some theory that they can compress carbon into diamonds, and then they fall as rain into the atmosphere, but in comparison to Earth's systems, that's very, very exotic. But in fact, in our book, we talk about weather on lots of different planets. And it is fascinating, it really is. Considering we're all fuelled by the sun, it's really to do with the the tilt of the planets. For Earth we have a tilt of about 23 degrees, which allows us to have seasons, so an absolutely sort of beautiful array of different types of weather through the year. And then it's the spin as well, so how it rotates through a day and that changes with different planets and how far away the planet is from the sun, which is absolutely fundamental in terms of tapping into sunlight.
t winds, which pick up to one:Rosa:
Yeah, it’s definitely fascinating, and I imagine it also helps us find out things about how climate change can affect us…
Clare: ses reaching record levels in:
Rosa:
We've talked about extreme weather, but what about solutions? What are some of the most promising strategies for protecting agriculture and biodiversity in the face of climate change?
Clare: let me just take you back to:
And climate scientists are developing these warning systems to actually predict locust swarms and also drought conditions which mean these locusts are looking for, you know, vegetation, and prime targets are local crops. They use systems such as satellite data, weather forecasts, and also ground observations to provide timely alerts to farmers as well as authorities, but it goes beyond that as well. You know, it's about pest management. It's about drought resilient crops. It's about sustainable water management and tapping into where the water is to allow for irrigation and supporting those crops to be able to harvest at a timely moment. And it's about community training and support as well. Climate scientists and agricultural experts are providing this type of training, support for local communities for best practices across crop management, pest control and also water conservation.
This is just one example of really devastating effects and how, you know, climate scientists and other health authorities and organisations are having to raise their game to protect millions of farmers around the world because there will be more crops devastated by droughts, by too much flooding and also by invasive pests as well.
Michelle:
Thank you Clare and Rosa.
Brian:
For more out-of-this-world stories check out episode 78! We went on a mission where no podcast has ever gone before to bring you futuristic innovations and space solutions for sustainable agriculture.
Michelle:
You can also check out episode 77 to listen to our loving stories on protecting biodiversity – through love, not loss.
Brian:
And, of course, our latest episode. Because episode 79 kickstarted Life Stories, a series that will bring you closer to the real-life struggles and triumphs of those shaping the future of farming.
Michelle:
And now, we speak with Steven Siems, an expert in weather modification and cloud seeding.
Michelle:
You’re listening to Farms. Food. Future. with me Michelle Tang and Brian Thomson.
Dr. Steven Siems is a Professor at Monash University and Co-chair of the World Meteorological Organization’s Expert Team on Weather Modification.
Brian:
His research focuses on how weather systems work in Tasmania and the Snowy Mountains, where weather modification techniques are being used to manage rainfall and water resources. Our reporter Rosa González spoke to Steven.
Rosa González:
Welcome, Steven, and thank you for joining us today. So, for listeners who are unfamiliar with weather modification, what are the key things they should know about cloud seeding, for example? How does it work?
Steven Siems:
Okay, so cloud seeding is one type of weather modification, and you also have things like dispersing fog and trying to suppress hail, but cloud seeding is definitely the most popular of those are the most well-known. And within that there are really kind of two different types of cloud seeding. There's something we call glaciogenic seeding and something we call hygroscopic seeding to put scary names on them or big names on them. But one of them works with really trying to take clouds that are below freezing but remain a liquid. So, you often see these in winter, and you see them like going over mountains in the Alps or in the Rocky Mountains in the United States. Here in Australia, we see them over the snowy Mountains and over Tasmania, where you get some air that goes over the mountains it gets pushed up, it cools as it goes over the mountains... but the liquid doesn't turn into ice, it stays as a liquid. And so, it doesn't really ever grow into big enough ice crystals to fall to the ground, and so it doesn't precipitate. And even if it melts on the way down, the clouds form and the air mass move over the mountains, and the clouds go down on the other side, and then no rain happens, or very little rain.
And the idea here is really to introduce what we call an ice nuclei. I introduce a little bit of an aerosol that will actually let that water droplet that's maybe at -5°C or -8°C or just below freezing, to make it freeze. And then once it freezes, it can grow quickly, and you actually get the precipitation reaching the ground. Even if it melts on the way down, you've had it grow big enough in the cloud to fall all the way down. If you have those right conditions where you have those kind of clouds... we've seen that work. I mean, very similar to what we've done in the lab for many years. You can go back 60 years and look at lab experiments where they do that, and in the right conditions we're pretty confident it works, or we're highly confident it works, I should say. But it's very, very limited. You know, times and places where it works.
A different type of cloud seeding is something called hygroscopic seeding, and that's aimed at big convective clouds that can produce a lot of rain, and the idea there is really to try to jumpstart the process, making the big drops happen quicker. And if you get the big drops happening quicker, then hopefully you can accelerate the whole precipitation process and get it really focused or in the area you want it to fall, have a little more control on what's going on. That one's much harder to demonstrate, I would say is very controversial and so far, we're not widely confident about how effective it is.
Rosa:
That's really interesting. So, what potential does this have for agriculture and water management?
Steve:
Well, in many places where they do the first kind of seeding, like in China and in the United States, here in Australia, they've done it. That's really nice for water management. I mean, here in Australia it was the hydroelectric companies that were doing it for water management to increase their wintertime rainfall to, you know, stock up the reservoirs or fill up the reservoirs. And similarly, in the western United States, they do that quite a bit in the western and the Rocky Mountains to help, you know, fill up the water reservoirs and last them through the summer or last time through the rest of the year. So, in that sense, you know, it can help downstream agriculture.
Now, if you just wanted to directly cause precipitation over kind of the agricultural areas, well, that's not usually up in the mountains and certainly not in winter over the mountains. And then you're looking at more of that hygroscopic seeding. And again, I would say that we really don't have great confidence that that is going to be effective.
Rosa:
Mhm. So, there are two types of cloud seeding, and the second one, as you were saying, is controversial. So, could you tell us a bit about the potential environmental impacts that this could have?
Steven:The glaciogenic has had more about it because people have done it for long times and periods, but you put up a little bit of silver iodide, but places like Snowy Hydro have done extensive environmental monitoring before, during and after just to see if there was any build up. And the reality is that there's very little silver iodide use iodide used in a given flight or a given period. You're talking over the area that's dispersed, the stories that we used to hear is that you would get more pollutants, more toxic from the fuel on the aircraft than you would get from the actual aerosols that you emit. There's no evidence you've gone anywhere near the hazard level with these materials, and there has been extensive monitoring. For hygroscopic sitting, a lot of times all they use is something like salt to do this jump start process. So that's completely benign. You know, putting up some salt into the air. You know, if you're out over the ocean, most of your aerosols that are going up there, sea spray is salt anyway. So, you're not talking about huge quantities anyway, so for these traditional ways there is really no concern environmentally.
Rosa:And if cloud seeding enhances rainfall in one region, would that mean that the clouds will have less moisture, less rain inside left for areas they move to afterward? How could this affect rainfall patterns in regions further along the clouds path?
Steven:If you are controlling or trying to target where the rainfall comes or when it comes, then yes, you are removing rainfall or moisture from the system. Either case, if you increase rainfall, you have removed moisture from the system. But the problem with hygroscopic seating is you have a hard enough time proving you've done anything. There's just so much natural variability in these clouds. Convective clouds can rain one spot and not rain ten kilometres away. So, if you have a hard time proving you're doing anything in your target region, you have a much harder time proving you've done anything downstream.
Brian:
Thank you Steven and Rosa.
To find out more about the World Meteorological Organization, you can visit wmo.int
Michelle:
From understanding weather patterns to the growing pressures of climate change, we’ve set the stage for Dan Martin, IFAD’s Senior Technical Specialist for Water & Rural Infrastructure, who's working on the frontlines to turn water challenges into opportunities with innovative solutions.
Brian:
You’re listening to Farms. Food. Future. with me Brian Thomson and Michelle Tang.
Michelle:
Let’s face it: water is life.
Brian:
But for farmers, it’s more than that. It’s survival.
And when you’re facing changing weather patterns, inconsistent rainfall, and all the climate curveballs, every drop counts.
Michelle:
It’s a global challenge – but it’s also a chance to change the game.
Because the way we manage water today is going to determine what farming looks like tomorrow.
Brian:
And on the occasion of World Water Day, it’s the perfect time to talk about how we can manage this vital resource more efficiently.
Michelle:
How can we use less water, get more from what we have, and protect it for future generations?
Brian:
To answer these questions, our reporter, Katherine Velastegui, spoke to Dan Martin, Senior Technical Specialist for Water & Rural Infrastructure at IFAD
Katherine Velastegui:
Welcome Dan and thank you for joining us on Farms. Food. Future.
Katherine:
So, we know water is life, but for small-scale farmers, it’s also make-or-break. What’s IFAD’s approach to ensuring they have reliable access to water, even as climate change makes rainfall more unpredictable?
Dan Martin:
Water it's not just the necessity; it's the foundation of everything that IFAD does and none of the other activities that we do within IFAD then work if you don't have water, it's very much the foundation of slow scale farming. But these days, as you know, we're faced with increasing challenges and climate changes is one of them.
Many of the countries that we work in and many of the small holders that we work with face a series of erratic and unpredictable weather events. More rainfall, less rainfall, periods of drought, periods of flood and this on the whole threatens rural and agricultural livelihoods around the world, so within the water team, we try to take a holistic approach to water access and we invest in more climate resilient water in rural infrastructure, which not only is driven by farmers needs but also looking at a long term investment of the infrastructure itself to ensure that what we are putting in the ground lasts, is sustainable, is manageable and that the communities that we work with are empowered to own it and operate it efficiently.
And we do that through investing in irrigation schemes, rainwater harvesting infrastructure, rural infrastructure, connectivity infrastructure, making sure those interventions are fit for purpose and that the farmers are empowered to improve their livelihoods through that infrastructure, and that it adds value to the partner countries that we work with.
Katherine:
Which water saving innovations do you consider are making the biggest impact?
Dan:
We work a lot in irrigation, we try to innovate as much as possible but making sure that it's fit for purpose. We work with drip irrigation technology and rainwater harvesting, where relevant, not just for agricultural purposes, but for community water supplying.
We like to add value to the small-holders in the communities that we work with, we partner that with working with drought-resistant crops and agricultural practices to ensure that the infrastructure that we’re putting in place is supported by kind of resilient varieties of crops making sure crops that require less water, and working with innovative agroforestry techniques to make sure that we retain soil moisture, reduced evaporation, also working a lot with renewable energy too.
So, we try to move small holders away from diesel power for irrigation and switch to solar [power], which is more affordable in the long term and more sustainable. So, there’s lots of innovative ways that we work with farmers, but also to make sure that we're not just innovating for the sake of it but making sure that the innovations that we put in place are fit for purpose for the rural communities that we serve. And a lot of that quite often is through the simplest technology, not necessarily the most advanced.
Katherine:
Now you've seen IFAD’s projects in action. Can you share a story where better water management transformed a farming community?
Dan:
We are in the process of working on a project in Malawi called PRIDE. It’s a big project of IFAD and it’s been a big focus of my attention of the last few years. It’s a large-scale irrigation project but providing small scale irrigation systems to small holders in both the north and the south of Malawi, and Malawi has faced increased challenges over the past few years as I mentioned. It’s a switch from droughts to floods, and extreme weather events: they were adversely affected by cyclone Freddy a couple of years ago, which damaged a lot of infrastructure.
It's projects like PRIDE, where we provide irrigation schemes to farmers not only we’ve seen that it not only it makes them [farmers] more resilient, but diversifies their livelihoods and the schemes that we put in place are typically small-scale gravity fed systems, so it’s easy to maintain, easy to manage, and it also provides women within those communities who typically have limited access to water resources and more opportunities to participate in agriculture and generate more income for the communities themselves.
We also look to strengthen local water user associations and groups to make sure that they're managing the irrigation schemes, the infrastructure itself and the water resources. We look to blend traditional and modern. And I think critically as well, making sure that we’re looking at long term climate adaptation strategies to make sure that our projects and everything that we do that’s water related is climate resilient and adaptable, because the conditions are ever-changing. We look at the example I gave you of Malawi, this is a country that hasn't faced threats like cyclones in the past year - this was categorized as something like once in 100-year type event, but these are becoming more and more frequent. So, I think that building in those strategies for adaptation is really important.
Michelle:
Thank you Katherine and Dan.
Brian:
And that brings us to the end of this episode.
Brian:
Thanks as always to our producers and editor here in Rome, Rosa González, Francesco Manetti, Michele Galloni, Jianing Zhang, and to our reporter, Katherine Velastegui.
Michelle:
But most of all thanks to you for listening to this episode of Farms Food Future brought to you by the International Fund for Agricultural Development.
Brian:
We’ll be back in two weeks to head to the desert!
Michelle:
We’ll explore how these vast, arid regions are coping with extreme heat and water scarcity.
Brian:
And on the last Monday of April, we’re off to Asia and the Pacific, where changing the way people eat is transforming health and agriculture
Brian and Michelle:
Stay tuned!
Brian:
This is Farms. Food. Future. – a podcast that’s Good for you, Good for the Planet, and Good for Farmers. Brought to you by the International Fund for Agricultural Development.
You can find out more about all of our stories at www.ifad.org/podcasts
Remember we want to hear from you – what you think about our stories and who you want us to be talking to – so please get in touch at podcasts@ifad.org. Send us your voice or text messages to this address and we'll be happy to play you out in the next show.
Also, don't forget to subscribe to this podcast via your favourite podcast platform and please rate us.
And once again, we'll be trying to be Good for you, Good for the Planet, and Good for Farmers. Brought to you by the International Fund for Agricultural Development.
Until then from me, Brian Thomson, and the team here at IFAD.
Thanks for listening.
